Publications

Controls on wildfires identified from satellite and climate data

Latest publication

Wildfires affect infrastructures, vegetation, and the atmosphere. However, it is unclear how fires should be accurately represented in global vegetation models. We introduce here a new flexible data-driven fire modelling approach that allows us to explore sensitivities of burned areas to satellite and climate datasets. Our results suggest combining observations with data-driven and process-oriented fire models to better understand the role of fires in the Earth system.

Forkel, M., Dorigo, W., Lasslop, G., Teubner, I., Chuvieco, E., Thonicke, K. (2017). A data-driven approach to identify controls on global fire activity from satellite and climate observations (SOFIA V1). Geoscientific Model Development 10, 4443-4476. doi:10.5194/gmd-10-4443-2017

Warming making bigger CO2 swings

"The combined effects of climate change and vegetation dynamics at high northern latitudes have amplified the seasonal variation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the past half century. Forkel et al. combined observations and models to show that climate warming has caused the photosynthetic uptake of carbon to increase faster than its respiratory release from the terrestrial biosphere. This has increased the difference from summer to winter, as well as the latitudinal gradient. Because of the physiological limitations to carbon uptake by terrestrial vegetation, this negative feedback to warming in the boreal north and Arctic cannot continue indefinitely." (Science 351, 6274, p. 696). The paper was also featured at climate central.

Forkel, M., Carvalhais, N., Rödenbeck, C., Keeling, R., Heimann, M., Thonicke, K., Zaehle, S., Reichstein, M. (2016). Enhanced seasonal CO2 exchange caused by amplified plant productivity in northern ecosystems. Science, doi:10.1126/science.aac4971.

Key publicatons

Forkel, M., Carvalhais, N., Rödenbeck, C., Keeling, R., Heimann, M., Thonicke, K., Zaehle, S., Reichstein, M. (2016). Enhanced seasonal CO2 exchange caused by amplified plant productivity in northern ecosystems. Science, doi:10.1126/science.aac4971. Citations: 77

Carvalhais, N., Forkel, M., Khomik, M., Bellarby, J., Jung, M., Migliavacca, M., Mu, M., Saatchi, S., Santoro, M., Thurner, M., Weber, U., Ahrens, B., Beer, C., Cescatti, A., Randerson, J. T., Reichstein, M. (2014). Global covariation of carbon turnover times with climate in terrestrial ecosystems. Nature, 514, 213-217. doi:10.1038/nature13731. Citations: 188

Forkel, M., Carvalhais, N., Verbesselt, J., Mahecha, M. D., Neigh, C. S., Reichstein, M. (2013). Trend change detection in NDVI time series: Effects of inter-annual variability and methodology. Remote Sensing, 5(5), 2113-2144. doi:10.3390/rs5052113. Citations: 128

Forkel, M., Migliavacca, M., Thonicke, K., Reichstein, M., Schaphoff, S., Weber, U., Carvalhais, N. (2015). Codominant water control on global interannual variability and trends in land surface phenology and greenness. Global Change Biology, 21(9), 3414-3435. doi:10.1111/gcb.12950. Citations: 48

Research impact

Currently, my publications have been cited ~540 times resulting in an h-index of 10-12:

All peer-reviewed publicatons

Publication are ordered chronological: 2018 |2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2012-2013

2018

(19) Schaphoff, S., Forkel, M., Müller, C., Knauer, J., von Bloh, W., Gerten, D., Jägermeyr, J., Lucht, W., Rammig, A., Thonicke, K. and Waha, K. (2018b): LPJmL4 – a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land – Part 2: Model evaluation. Geoscientific Model Development, 11(4), 1377–1403, doi:10.5194/gmd-11-1377-2018.

(18) Schaphoff, S., von Bloh, W., Rammig, A., Thonicke, K., Biemans, H., Forkel, M., Gerten, D., Heinke, J., Jägermeyr, J., Knauer, J., Langerwisch, F., Lucht, W., Müller, C., Rolinski, S. and Waha, K. (2018a): LPJmL4 – a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land – Part 1: Model description. Geoscientific Model Development, 11(4), 1343–1375, doi:10.5194/gmd-11-1343-2018.

(17) Teubner, I.E., Forkel, M., Jung, M., Liu, Y.Y., Miralles, D.G., Parinussa, R., van der Schalie, R., Vreugdenhil, M., Schwalm, C.R., Tramontana, G., Camps-Valls, G., Dorigo, W.A. (2018). Assessing the relationship between microwave vegetation optical depth and gross primary production. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 65, 79–91. doi:10.1016/j.jag.2017.10.006

2017

(16) Forkel, M., Dorigo, W., Lasslop, G., Teubner, I., Chuvieco, E., Thonicke, K. (2017). A data-driven approach to identify controls on global fire activity from satellite and climate observations (SOFIA V1). Geoscientific Model Development 10, 4443-4476. doi:10.5194/gmd-10-4443-2017

(15) Dorigo, W., Wagner, W., Albergel, C., Albrecht, F., Balsamo, G., Brocca, L., Chung, D., Ertl, M., Forkel, M., Gruber, A., Haas, E., Hamer, P.D., Hirschi, M., Ikonen, J., de Jeu, R., Kidd, R., Lahoz, W., Liu, Y.Y., Miralles, D., Mistelbauer, T., Nicolai-Shaw, N., Parinussa, R., Pratola, C., Reimer, C., van der Schalie, R., Seneviratne, S.I., Smolander, T., Lecomte, P. (2017). ESA CCI Soil Moisture for improved Earth system understanding: State-of-the art and future directions. Remote Sensing of Environment, 203, 185-215. doi:10.1016/j.rse.2017.07.001

(14) Sippel, S., Forkel, M., Rammig, A., Thonicke, K., Flach, M., Heimann, M., Otto, F. E. L., Reichstein, M. and Mahecha, M. D. (2017). Contrasting and interacting changes in simulated spring and summer carbon cycle extremes in European ecosystems. Environmental Research Letters, 12, 7, 075006. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa7398.

(13) Knauer, J., Zaehle, S., Reichstein, M., Medlyn, B. E., Forkel, M., Hagemann, S., Werner, C. (2017). The response of ecosystem water-use efficiency to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations: sensitivity and large-scale biogeochemical implications. New Phytologist, 213, 1654-1666. doi:10.1111/nph.14288.

2016

(12) Thurner, M., Beer, C., Carvalhais, N., Forkel, M., Santoro, M., Tum, M., Schmullius, C. (2016). Large‐scale variation in boreal and temperate forest carbon turnover rate is related to climate. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1002/2016GL068794.

(11) Sippel, S., Otto, F. E. L., Forkel, M., Allen, M. R., Guillod, B. P., Heimann, M., Reichstein, M., Seneviratne, S. I., Thonicke, K., Mahecha, M. D. (2016). A novel bias correction methodology for climate impact simulations. Earth System Dynamics, 7, 71-88. doi:10.5194/esd-7-71-2016.

(10) Filippa, G., Cremonese, E., Migliavacca, M., Galvagno, M., Forkel, M., Wingate, L., Tomelleri, E., Morra di Cella, U., Richardson, A.D. (2016). Phenopix: A R package for image-based vegetation phenology. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 220, 141–150. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.01.006

(9) Forkel, M., Carvalhais, N., Rödenbeck, C., Keeling, R., Heimann, M., Thonicke, K., Zaehle, S., Reichstein, M. (2016). Enhanced seasonal CO2 exchange caused by amplified plant productivity in northern ecosystems. Science, doi:10.1126/science.aac4971.

2015

(8) Forkel, M., Migliavacca, M., Thonicke, K., Reichstein, M., Schaphoff, S., Weber, U., Carvalhais, N. (2015). Codominant water control on global interannual variability and trends in land surface phenology and greenness. Global Change Biology, 21(9), 3414-3435. doi:10.1111/gcb.12950.

(7) Semenova, O., Lebedeva, L., Volkova, N., Korenev, I., Forkel, M., Eberle, J., Urban, M. (2015). Detecting immediate wildfire impact on runoff in a poorly-gauged mountainous permafrost basin. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 60(7-8), 1225-1241. doi:10.1080/02626667.2014.959960.

2014

(6) Carvalhais, N., Forkel, M., Khomik, M., Bellarby, J., Jung, M., Migliavacca, M., Mu, M., Saatchi, S., Santoro, M., Thurner, M., Weber, U., Ahrens, B., Beer, C., Cescatti, A., Randerson, J. T., Reichstein, M. (2014). Global covariation of carbon turnover times with climate in terrestrial ecosystems. Nature, 514, 213-217. doi:10.1038/nature13731.

(5) Forkel, M., Carvalhais, N., Schaphoff, S., Bloh, W. v., Migliavacca, M., Thurner, M., Thonicke, K. (2014). Identifying environmental controls on vegetation greenness phenology through model-data integration. Biogeosciences, 11(23), 7025-7050. doi:10.5194/bg-11-7025-2014.

(4) Urban, M., Forkel, M., Eberle, J., Hüttich, C., Schmullius, C., Herold, M. (2014). Pan-arctic climate and land cover trends derived from multi-variate and multi-scale analyses (1981–2012). Remote Sensing, 6(3), 2296-2316. doi:10.3390/rs6032296.

2012 - 2013

(3) Urban, M., Forkel, M., Schmullius, C., Hese, S., Hüttich, C., Herold, M. (2013). Identification of land surface temperature and albedo trends in AVHRR Pathfinder data from 1982 to 2005 for northern Siberia. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 34(12), 4491-4507. doi:10.1080/01431161.2013.779760.

(2) Forkel, M., Carvalhais, N., Verbesselt, J., Mahecha, M. D., Neigh, C. S., Reichstein, M. (2013). Trend change detection in NDVI time series: Effects of inter-annual variability and methodology. Remote Sensing, 5(5), 2113-2144. doi:10.3390/rs5052113.

(1) Forkel, M., Thonicke, K., Beer, C., Cramer, W., Bartalev, S., Schmullius, C. (2012). Extreme fire events are related to previous-year surface moisture conditions in permafrost-underlain larch forests of Siberia. Environmental Research Letters, 7: 044021. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044021.